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How far is China away from the crisis?
  Add date: 04/21/2009   Publishing date: 04/21/2009   Hits: 1
Total 2 pages, Current page:1, Jump to page:
 

Much has been talked about signs of recovery in Chinese economy, but little is certain about long-awaited rebound.

Discussing the latest development of Chinese economy at the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA), worldwide officials, business executives and professionals remained prudent about China's 8-percent gross domestic product (GDP) target in 2009, but mentioned some favorable changes in the country's economy.

Bob Hawke, former prime minister of Australia, forecast China's GDP growth between 7 percent to 8 percent. In the meantime, he believed a reversal had come.

"The 4-trillion-yuan ($585 billion)stimulus (package) is now beginning to work, and China's economy ... has reached the bottom and started to come up now," Hawke told Xinhua at the forum.

Increasing stress of sluggish exports, dampened employment and shrinking corporate profits have pulled down the Chinese economy to a growth of 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter last year.

A favorable trend might be forming in the first quarter of this year. Ding Lei, president of Shanghai General Motors Corporation Ltd, observed increasing domestic demand for motor vehicles.

"Our automobile exports remain low, but auto sales gained 12.9 percent in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter last year," Ding said.

"China's policy package to boost automobile industry has effectively activated domestic market, and boosted the confidence of companies," Ding said.

John Cleland, chief executive officer of WestNet Infrastructure Group that has resources products trade with China, also noticed "some increase in demand".

"It's very hard to say, but there are signs of recovery of (China's demand for resources products)," he told Xinhua.

"Stockpiles of iron ore and steel in China have been reducing, so hopefully some projects that were put on hold have come back in the line," he said.

"China will come through (the crisis) quickly. Resource demand will recover. The demand for iron ore and basic commodities will recover quicker than consumer economies," he said.

Stable growth can also be expected in infrastructure. As China builds its nationwide mobile network, considerable and stable job opportunities can be created, said Per-Olof Bjork, general manager of Greater China Affairs of Ericsson Group Headquarters.

However, the changes are mainly felt in industries covered in the government's stimulus package, and China might need to go through a more painstaking path to ensure healthy and stable economic growth.

Chinese economy has shown more optimistic signals in the first quarter, but there are many uncertainties, said Chris Morley, managing director of Nielson China.

One uncertainty is the grim global economic climate. The US and European economies are struggling in the crisis, which means China has to seek more internal growth to make up for the loss in exports.

The first quarter continued to see a slash in exports, which declined 19.7 percent year on year. Exports used to be one of three major sectors driving the Chinese economy, but it contributed negative 0.2 percent to the country's economic growth in the quarter.

 

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